Roadmap’s Revenue Estimates - Response to Tax Policy Center’s Analysis
By: Robert Carroll, Former Deputy Assistant Secretary for Tax Analysis, U.S. Treasury Department
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
“Last week the Tax Policy Center released an analysis indicating that Congressman Ryan’s Roadmap for America’s Future, falls short of replacing the federal government’s revenues over the next decade raising 16.6 percent of GDP rather than the 18.35 percent needed to replace revenues under CBO’s “alternative baseline,” which extends the tax law as it stands in 2009 along with indexation of the alternative minimum tax.
“Towards the end of the Bush Administration, while I was serving as Treasury’s Deputy Assistant Secretary for Tax Analysis, Treasury worked closely with Congressman Ryan to develop key aspects of his Roadmap plan. Absent the option to choose between the current and alternative tax systems, Treasury had estimated this plan to be roughly revenue neutral over the ten year budget window, although the plan differed somewhat from the recently announced Roadmap plan and economic conditions have changed considerably. Ultimately, this plan will, of course, need to be scored by the Joint Committee on Taxation, the official scorekeeper for the Congress.
“Developing a coherent and comprehensive tax reform proposal is difficult and painstaking work. As demonstrated in prior reform efforts, notably the Tax Reform Act of 1986, tax reform is a multi-year process by which many participants in the debate put provocative, forwarding leaning ideas. This is exactly what Congressman Ryan’s Roadmap, as well as the Wyden-Gregg Bipartisan Tax Fairness and Simplification Act proposal aim to accomplish.”
Available online from Tax Policy Center at